Friday evening I listened to Dr. Simon Atkins’ interview with Mark Levin and came to the conclusion that, perhaps, the Irenaclypse may have been just a tad oversold. No surprise there: the Drive-Bys have a fetish for growing fat on their own excrement – and any imminent disaster is ambrosia for their jaded appetites. Tossing all skepticism quite literally to the wind they created and then joined the ever-spiraling clusterfark that ultimately results in panicked sheeple crowding area supermarkets and home centers even as their carefully coiffed and blow-dried “reporters” breathlessly report that hordes of panicked sheeple are crowding area supermarkets and home centers.
Meanwhile, the veterans among them are issued oilskin sou’westers and perched on surf-pounded beaches where cameras record them desperately trying to keep from being blown over by the high winds and pelting rain as they explain that the beaches are getting blasted with high winds and pelted with a driving rain.
The Levin interview presented a stark contrast to what I heard on Sean Hannity’s show: twice per hour the listener was subjected to the dire forebodings of “Hurricane Joe” Bastardi, who makes Nostradamus look like Pollyanna. In chilling detail, Hurricane Joe explained the what and when of Irene’s projected path of destruction along the eastern seaboard. Friday evening Nicole phoned me from the Wegmans Supermarket in Woodbridge, where she described a scene of total panic: shelves were bare, every register was open and the the lines snaked into the aisles. I suspected the same scenario existed at every other supermarket withing 50 miles of the coast.
All throughout the day I heard what amounted to a press conference cage match where Governor Christie, Governor Cuomo and Mayor Bloomberg seemed to compete with each other to give the most excruciatingly detailed account of excruciatingly micromanaged efforts to maximize political capital by minimizing the slightest risk on the part of individuals – to the point where Christie ordered mandatory evacuations and shut down the southbound side of the Garden State Parkway south of Exit 98. As if this were some kind of poker game, Mayor Nanny seemed to respond “I’ll see your evacuations and Parkway shutdown and raise you the shutdown of the entire NYC mass transit system.”
Bastardi claimed that once Irene hit the warm Gulf Stream water north of Cape Hatteras it would gain strength as he predicted from the onset. Atkins disagreed and, in the course of his interview with Levin, made the case for Irene weakening to a tropical storm and continued that case on a comment board:
From: Anne in New Orleans
Heard your interview on Mark Levin’s show last night. That was very informative. You were proven to be correct.
I’m not surprised though. We see this type of exageration on hurricanes all the time. It’s very costly and time consuming to pick-up your valuables and get on the road. Many people begin to ignore the warnings.
Simple lesson that’s been in our lives from our youth, don’t cry wolf. The people reporting the weather need to be less entertaining, and more honest.
Dear Ann: many thanks for your comment. Although we are not out-of-the-woods yet, the NHC will very likely show (at least I hope they will soon based upon my professional analysis) that Irene is a strong tropical-storm now (as of 12 noon Eastern on Sat, Aug 27). I am glad you liked the Mark Levin Show interview: he was so gracious to have me on for over 10 minutes.
For all those missed it and would like to hear it, please go here:
You said it, Ann: it is dangerous to cry wolf. It is one of the worst ‘mistakes’ that we, as a society can make. We need true ‘old-fashioned’ leadership which includes cooperation, community and care (not to sound tacky, but my three C’s).
Also, you are right in saying that by shutting down huge transportation systems — subways, trains, buses, bridges, and ALL airports — this makes it even DANGEROUS for the public! My word, when we look back on this, I am confident that many will ask, ‘what WERE they thinking’?!
The “system” on storm risk management and informing the public must be overhauled sensibly, logically and scientifically. And that means NOT including any stupidity or brainwashing like the CO2 scam of additional taxation.
As I write this, Irene is skirting the coast of North Carolina and poised to descend on Virginia, Maryland and New Jersey. It remains to be seen if Irene strengthens into a more powerful hurricane or continues to weaken into a distaff version of TS Floyd, which hit the Garden State in 1999.
So far, Dr. Atkins appears to have been the lone meteorologist who accurately predicted what would happen.
The demise of Irene has already begun. There is no visible eye. The storm intensity is down to 99 mph. This would be a low-end category 2 or a strong category 1 storm, while 36 hours ago some predicted a catastrophic category 4 storm. Air Force Reserve aircraft have found that Irene’s eyewall has collapsed, and the central pressure has risen — rising pressure means a weakening storm.
The reduction in storm intensity likely confirms that this storm is not going to be as monstrous as it has been publicly forecast to be.
Yes, it will be windy. However, north of Delaware most hurricane force winds will very likely be gusts, not sustained winds.
At Advanced Forecasting Corporation, we are concentrating on the surging waters which typically cause over 85% of the loss of life in hurricanes. We have modeled the following predictions:
1) There will be wind damage over eastern-most North Carolina as well as some storm surge flooding up the Pamlico Sound. Some houses in the Hamptons will be flooded and destroyed. Flooding might occur in New York’s Battery Park Subway station and on the FDR Drive since the city could get up to 8 inches of rain. There may be some New England neighborhoods submerged due to rivers overflowing.
2) With 90% confidence, we predict a total damage bill below $1 billion. Unless there is an unexpected secondary or tertiary event, this is not going to be a huge-loss storm.
Our internal modeling uses genetic algorithms to emphasize the weaknesses of storms. Remember that storms are energy. Just like people, they all have their own personalities. From the get-go, Irene was not a power storm. Her goal was to become wide, not internally powerful. Personified further, the storm became too big too quickly and it cannot master its own strength.
If he is correct, then Hurricane Joe may have a whole lotta splainin’ to do on Monday.